Target Outpaces Walmart in Online Grocery Growth

Most popular grocery item in online sales at Target is Starbucks Plus Dark Roast Coffee — Keurig K-Cup Pods.

Key Takeaways:

• Since beginning of 2018, Walmart online grocery orders grew 75%, while Target grew 119%
• Walmart still dwarfs Target in total online grocery sales, with over six times as many orders.
• Starbucks, Maruchan and Quaker were the most popular grocery brands in online sales for Target; Bush’s, Kraft and Kellogg’s for Walmart.
• The only brands to make the top ten most popular items purchased for both stores were Maruchan, Campbell’s, and Betty Crocker.

The online grocery sales arena is growing rapidly, with consumer sales expected to reach $100 billion by 2025, according to a Nielsen study for the Food Marketing Institute. Walmart’s online offerings have helped it achieve the best performance in the grocery department that it’s seen in nine years, says Walmart U.S. CEO Greg Foran. Meanwhile, Target’s $550 million acquisition of Shipt late last year allowed them entry into the same-day grocery delivery game. As the players jockey for position, Edison Trends examined how Walmart and Target are faring, and how they differ in their online grocery options.

How do Target and Walmart compare in online grocery sales?

Figure 1. Chart shows trend for online sales of grocery items in terms of number of orders per week, between January 1, 2018 and October 14, 2018, according to Edison Trends. “1x” means “1x the week of January 1, 2018 amount.”

From the beginning of the year through the second week of October, Walmart online grocery orders grew 75%, while Target has grown 119%. During the week of October 8, Walmart saw 6.4x as many online grocery orders as its rival. Both parties saw near-continuous growth throughout 2018.

What are customers buying at Target vs. Walmart?

Figure 2a: Chart shows top ten most popular non-produce grocery brands in online sales at Target, with the percent of orders among the top ten.

Figure 2b: Chart shows top ten most popular non-house, non-produce grocery brands in online sales at Walmart, with the percent of orders among the top ten.

Looking at online sales of grocery items other than produce, Starbucks was the most popular brand of products purchased by Target consumers, with 23% more items sold than next-leading contender Maruchan. Quaker, Gerber and Annie’s round out the top five. At Walmart, Bush’s was the top non-house, non-produce brand in online grocery purchases (house brand, Great Value, was the far-and-away leader overall, with nearly 13x as many products sold as Bush’s since the beginning of the year.) Kraft, Kellogg’s, Nabisco and Campbell’s branded products also ranked high among Walmart consumers. The only brands to make the top 10 most popular items purchased for both stores were Maruchan, Campbell’s, and Betty Crocker.

Within brands, which UPCs were most popular?

Figure 3a: Chart shows top ten most popular Starbucks grocery UPCs in online sales at Target, with the percent of orders among the top five.

The five most popular Starbucks grocery items in online sales at Target were a mix of ground coffee and Keurig K-Cup Pods. The winner was UPC 762111267641: Starbucks Plus Dark Roast Coffee — Keurig K-Cup Pods, making up 29% of items sold among the top five Starbucks products.

Figure 3b: Chart shows top ten most popular Bush’s grocery UPCs in online sales at Walmart, with the percent of orders among the top five.

Bush’s most popular UPC was 39400016144: Bush’s Original Baked Beans,making up 35% of the items ordered among the top five. The other four UPCs were a mix of baked and black beans.

*The data shown is based on a sample of anonymized and aggregated e-receipts from millions of consumers in the United States.

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